Air carrier PIC of widebody transport flight complains of unrealistic WX forecasting and resulting i...

Narrative:

WX forecasts and dispatcher action: flight was released to lga from stl with a newark alternate. Dispatch had us arriving lga with about 17000 pounds reserve fuel, 7400 pounds to alternate and about 2200 pounds of hold fuel (26600 pounds total) lga forecast was fair with northeast winds and an approximately 6 degrees temperature/dew point spread was expected to remain above limits with chance of occasional ceilings to 3000 ft. Arrival was planned about XY20 pm, a busy traffic period. I remarked to the copilot that if the winds shifted slightly more easterly the ceiling and visibility could lower quickly below the high limits for runway 4 ILS. I added 5200 additional pounds of fuel. En route we checked the WX on the ACARS and sure enough it went to 300 ft overcast. The ATIS was still reporting runway 4 in use when we went over to new york approach. After a long period of vectors (20 min or so) we asked what was going on. They said the runway was changing to ILS (offset) to runway 13. (Min decision height 250 ft) ceiling was now reported at 200 ft. RVR was 5000 ft plus. By the time we were about to make the approach we were below the fuel originally planned for our arrival, having 25000 pounds I called dispatch and asked to add jfk as the alternate. Ewr was reporting 300 ft as was jfk. My reasoning was that on a runway 13 approach the fuel to newark would be closer to 11000 pounds then the 7400 planned for runway 4 operation. This was due to vectoring around jfk and GA inbounds. Dispatcher agreed and we advised approach that in the event of a missed approach we would have to go immediately to jfk. Make the approach and had the runway environment at decision height landed with 24000 pounds. 2 problems: the WX forecast was very unrealistic and if revisions were issued we never got them. Also, dispatcher never advised us about the quickly deteriorating conditions.

Original NASA ASRS Text

Title: ACR PIC OF WDB FLT COMPLAINS OF UNREALISTIC WX FORECASTING AND RESULTING ILLOGICAL FUEL RESERVES FOR FLT PLANNING PREFLT INFLT.

Narrative: WX FORECASTS AND DISPATCHER ACTION: FLT WAS RELEASED TO LGA FROM STL WITH A NEWARK ALTERNATE. DISPATCH HAD US ARRIVING LGA WITH ABOUT 17000 POUNDS RESERVE FUEL, 7400 POUNDS TO ALTERNATE AND ABOUT 2200 POUNDS OF HOLD FUEL (26600 POUNDS TOTAL) LGA FORECAST WAS FAIR WITH NE WINDS AND AN APPROX 6 DEGS TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE LIMITS WITH CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL CEILINGS TO 3000 FT. ARR WAS PLANNED ABOUT XY20 PM, A BUSY TFC PERIOD. I REMARKED TO THE COPLT THAT IF THE WINDS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERLY THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY COULD LOWER QUICKLY BELOW THE HIGH LIMITS FOR RWY 4 ILS. I ADDED 5200 ADDITIONAL POUNDS OF FUEL. ENRTE WE CHKED THE WX ON THE ACARS AND SURE ENOUGH IT WENT TO 300 FT OVCST. THE ATIS WAS STILL RPTING RWY 4 IN USE WHEN WE WENT OVER TO NEW YORK APCH. AFTER A LONG PERIOD OF VECTORS (20 MIN OR SO) WE ASKED WHAT WAS GOING ON. THEY SAID THE RWY WAS CHANGING TO ILS (OFFSET) TO RWY 13. (MIN DECISION HEIGHT 250 FT) CEILING WAS NOW RPTED AT 200 FT. RVR WAS 5000 FT PLUS. BY THE TIME WE WERE ABOUT TO MAKE THE APCH WE WERE BELOW THE FUEL ORIGINALLY PLANNED FOR OUR ARR, HAVING 25000 POUNDS I CALLED DISPATCH AND ASKED TO ADD JFK AS THE ALTERNATE. EWR WAS RPTING 300 FT AS WAS JFK. MY REASONING WAS THAT ON A RWY 13 APCH THE FUEL TO NEWARK WOULD BE CLOSER TO 11000 POUNDS THEN THE 7400 PLANNED FOR RWY 4 OP. THIS WAS DUE TO VECTORING AROUND JFK AND GA INBOUNDS. DISPATCHER AGREED AND WE ADVISED APCH THAT IN THE EVENT OF A MISSED APCH WE WOULD HAVE TO GO IMMEDIATELY TO JFK. MAKE THE APCH AND HAD THE RWY ENVIRONMENT AT DECISION HEIGHT LANDED WITH 24000 POUNDS. 2 PROBLEMS: THE WX FORECAST WAS VERY UNREALISTIC AND IF REVISIONS WERE ISSUED WE NEVER GOT THEM. ALSO, DISPATCHER NEVER ADVISED US ABOUT THE QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.

Data retrieved from NASA's ASRS site as of July 2007 and automatically converted to unabbreviated mixed upper/lowercase text. This report is for informational purposes with no guarantee of accuracy. See NASA's ASRS site for official report.

Attributes
ACN	200219
Time
Date	199201
Day	Tue
Local Time Of Day	1801 To 2400
Place
Locale Reference	airport : lga
State Reference	NY
Environment
Flight Conditions	IMC
Light	Night
Aircraft 1
Controlling Facilities	tracon : n90
Operator	common carrier : air carrier
Make Model Name	Widebody, Low Wing, 3 Turbojet Eng
Navigation In Use	Other
Flight Phase	descent : approach landing other other
Flight Plan	IFR
Person 1
Affiliation	company : air carrier
Function	flight crew : captain oversight : pic
Qualification	pilot : atp
Experience	flight time last 90 days : 100 flight time total : 20000
ASRS Report	200219
Person 2
Affiliation	company : air carrier
Function	other personnel
Qualification	other
ASRS Report	200522
Events
Anomaly	non adherence other other anomaly other
Independent Detector	other flight crewa
Resolutory Action	other
Consequence	Other
Supplementary
Air Traffic Incident	other

Air carrier PIC of widebody transport flight complains of unrealistic WX forecasting and resulting illogical fuel reserves for flight planning preflight in-flight.