Narrative:

To preface this narrative; I will qualify my past 45 yrs plus of aviation experience to be 'extensive.' I have flown general aviation fixed wing; helicopter; gliders; ultra lights; and seaplanes; was a military flight instructor and heavy fixed wing pilot. I had a full career as an air carrier line pilot; instructor and line check pilot. What I am about to describe should not have happened...to me; of all people! Maybe my 'experience' contributed to my extreme stupidity in this scenario. I flew from home base to destination airport several hundred mi away the day after inclement WX had passed through the area. Forecasts were predicting high pressure along my route of flight; including my return three days later. WX was forecast to move into the midwest the evening after my planned morning takeoff for return to home base. WX was clear along the entire route of flight; as reported and forecast. Contrary the forecast however; it rained for the next two days! I delayed my return for one day; awoke to clear skies with forecast at home base for early morning thunderstorms; moving to the east of the area by my planned arrival from the west...should be a good day for flying! After an en route fuel stop; and about half way to home base; I encountered lowering ceilings. I landed to take a look at WX with AWOS reporting 1200-1500 ft broken and 7 mi visibility. I checked the WX and considered filing IFR; however revised sigmets now indicated convective activity imbedded in clouds with high tops; high winds and hail...not conducive to no-onboard-radar IFR. I waited for over an hour and had lunch while watching local conditions and to see if en route WX was in fact developed as forecast. After returning from lunch; the ceiling and visibility appeared to have improved and was verified by AWOS. I departed; optimistic that I would be able to continue VFR beneath the ceiling to home base. AWOS reports along either side of my intended route supported this decision; even though forecast conditions were for marginal VFR. I hadn't gotten very far when; once more; the ceiling dropped below my comfort level in marginal VFR conditions. I was facing a ridgeline and some higher terrain ahead and was beginning to be concerned about being able to safely clear the ridge; much less maintain VFR. An AWOS just short of the ridge line was still reporting VFR conditions; however. Once more; I landed at an airport of opportunity; called 1-800-wxbrief and again received the marginal VFR forecast. There were some AWOS stations reporting IFR ceilings; however airports directly along my intended route were reporting 1200 ft ceiling with 4-10 mi visibility. After about 30 mins on the ground; I left once more; thinking that the lower local ceilings that I was experiencing would improve 'a few mi' along my planned track. After flying a few more miles; again; conditions just were not what I was hearing on AWOS. Conditions continued to deteriorate and I was forced to descend below 1000 ft AGL to remain clear of clouds. The visibility was acceptable; but not optimal. I passed directly abeam an airport that was reporting 1200 ft overcast and either 4 or 6 miles visibility. I considered landing; however; as long as I had legal VFR; I elected to continue. Big mistake! About 25 mi further along; the ceiling came down and I was experiencing intermittent light rain. Even though I was still hearing AWOS reports of VFR ceilings and visibilities ahead; I was running out of options for remaining VFR. There were no airports available at that point that didn't have even lower clouds visible in their direction. My choices at this point were to continue at very low altitude clear of clouds; enter the overcast without clearance and try to get ATC assistance; or land on a highway. I elected to continue at low altitude. Finally; 25 mi from home base; the ceiling and visibility improved to 2000 ft plus and 10MI; so I made it home. I; of all people; know better! Continuing flight into marginal VFR conditions is a classic cause of aviation tragedies. I was so convinced; based on real-time AWOS xmissions that I would find improving conditions if I went 'just a little big further.' mine was a classic case of bad judgement. It goes without saying that I should have shut down the flight after the first landing when I had lunch. If I had parked the airplane; gone to a motel and continued to home base the next day; I would have had clear skies and many miles visibility. Instead; overconfidence; probably due in part to optimism fed by reported WX that was better than I continued to experience; led me into a situation that was unsafe; in violation of FARS and contrary to my personal rules of flight management. My best advice; which should be basic; common sense: donT push it when it comes to marginal WX.

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Original NASA ASRS Text

Title: A VFR C185 PLT ENCOUNTERED IMC AND CONTINUED AT A LOW AGL ALT FINALLY CLRING WX TO LAND VMC AT HIS HOME BASE.

Narrative: TO PREFACE THIS NARRATIVE; I WILL QUALIFY MY PAST 45 YRS PLUS OF AVIATION EXPERIENCE TO BE 'EXTENSIVE.' I HAVE FLOWN GENERAL AVIATION FIXED WING; HELI; GLIDERS; ULTRA LIGHTS; AND SEAPLANES; WAS A MIL FLT INSTRUCTOR AND HEAVY FIXED WING PLT. I HAD A FULL CAREER AS AN ACR LINE PLT; INSTRUCTOR AND LINE CHK PLT. WHAT I AM ABOUT TO DESCRIBE SHOULD NOT HAVE HAPPENED...TO ME; OF ALL PEOPLE! MAYBE MY 'EXPERIENCE' CONTRIBUTED TO MY EXTREME STUPIDITY IN THIS SCENARIO. I FLEW FROM HOME BASE TO DEST ARPT SEVERAL HUNDRED MI AWAY THE DAY AFTER INCLEMENT WX HAD PASSED THROUGH THE AREA. FORECASTS WERE PREDICTING HIGH PRESSURE ALONG MY RTE OF FLT; INCLUDING MY RETURN THREE DAYS LATER. WX WAS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST THE EVENING AFTER MY PLANNED MORNING TKOF FOR RETURN TO HOME BASE. WX WAS CLR ALONG THE ENTIRE RTE OF FLT; AS RPTED AND FORECAST. CONTRARY THE FORECAST HOWEVER; IT RAINED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS! I DELAYED MY RETURN FOR ONE DAY; AWOKE TO CLR SKIES WITH FORECAST AT HOME BASE FOR EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS; MOVING TO THE E OF THE AREA BY MY PLANNED ARR FROM THE W...SHOULD BE A GOOD DAY FOR FLYING! AFTER AN ENRTE FUEL STOP; AND ABOUT HALF WAY TO HOME BASE; I ENCOUNTERED LOWERING CEILINGS. I LANDED TO TAKE A LOOK AT WX WITH AWOS RPTING 1200-1500 FT BROKEN AND 7 MI VISIBILITY. I CHKED THE WX AND CONSIDERED FILING IFR; HOWEVER REVISED SIGMETS NOW INDICATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IMBEDDED IN CLOUDS WITH HIGH TOPS; HIGH WINDS AND HAIL...NOT CONDUCIVE TO NO-ONBOARD-RADAR IFR. I WAITED FOR OVER AN HOUR AND HAD LUNCH WHILE WATCHING LOCAL CONDITIONS AND TO SEE IF ENRTE WX WAS IN FACT DEVELOPED AS FORECAST. AFTER RETURNING FROM LUNCH; THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY APPEARED TO HAVE IMPROVED AND WAS VERIFIED BY AWOS. I DEPARTED; OPTIMISTIC THAT I WOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE VFR BENEATH THE CEILING TO HOME BASE. AWOS RPTS ALONG EITHER SIDE OF MY INTENDED RTE SUPPORTED THIS DECISION; EVEN THOUGH FORECAST CONDITIONS WERE FOR MARGINAL VFR. I HADN'T GOTTEN VERY FAR WHEN; ONCE MORE; THE CEILING DROPPED BELOW MY COMFORT LEVEL IN MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS. I WAS FACING A RIDGELINE AND SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AHEAD AND WAS BEGINNING TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT BEING ABLE TO SAFELY CLR THE RIDGE; MUCH LESS MAINTAIN VFR. AN AWOS JUST SHORT OF THE RIDGE LINE WAS STILL RPTING VFR CONDITIONS; HOWEVER. ONCE MORE; I LANDED AT AN ARPT OF OPPORTUNITY; CALLED 1-800-WXBRIEF AND AGAIN RECEIVED THE MARGINAL VFR FORECAST. THERE WERE SOME AWOS STATIONS RPTING IFR CEILINGS; HOWEVER ARPTS DIRECTLY ALONG MY INTENDED RTE WERE RPTING 1200 FT CEILING WITH 4-10 MI VISIBILITY. AFTER ABOUT 30 MINS ON THE GND; I LEFT ONCE MORE; THINKING THAT THE LOWER LOCAL CEILINGS THAT I WAS EXPERIENCING WOULD IMPROVE 'A FEW MI' ALONG MY PLANNED TRACK. AFTER FLYING A FEW MORE MILES; AGAIN; CONDITIONS JUST WERE NOT WHAT I WAS HEARING ON AWOS. CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND I WAS FORCED TO DSND BELOW 1000 FT AGL TO REMAIN CLR OF CLOUDS. THE VISIBILITY WAS ACCEPTABLE; BUT NOT OPTIMAL. I PASSED DIRECTLY ABEAM AN ARPT THAT WAS RPTING 1200 FT OVERCAST AND EITHER 4 OR 6 MILES VISIBILITY. I CONSIDERED LNDG; HOWEVER; AS LONG AS I HAD LEGAL VFR; I ELECTED TO CONTINUE. BIG MISTAKE! ABOUT 25 MI FURTHER ALONG; THE CEILING CAME DOWN AND I WAS EXPERIENCING INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN. EVEN THOUGH I WAS STILL HEARING AWOS RPTS OF VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AHEAD; I WAS RUNNING OUT OF OPTIONS FOR REMAINING VFR. THERE WERE NO ARPTS AVAILABLE AT THAT POINT THAT DIDN'T HAVE EVEN LOWER CLOUDS VISIBLE IN THEIR DIRECTION. MY CHOICES AT THIS POINT WERE TO CONTINUE AT VERY LOW ALT CLR OF CLOUDS; ENTER THE OVERCAST WITHOUT CLRNC AND TRY TO GET ATC ASSISTANCE; OR LAND ON A HWY. I ELECTED TO CONTINUE AT LOW ALT. FINALLY; 25 MI FROM HOME BASE; THE CEILING AND VISIBILITY IMPROVED TO 2000 FT PLUS AND 10MI; SO I MADE IT HOME. I; OF ALL PEOPLE; KNOW BETTER! CONTINUING FLT INTO MARGINAL VFR CONDITIONS IS A CLASSIC CAUSE OF AVIATION TRAGEDIES. I WAS SO CONVINCED; BASED ON REAL-TIME AWOS XMISSIONS THAT I WOULD FIND IMPROVING CONDITIONS IF I WENT 'JUST A LITTLE BIG FURTHER.' MINE WAS A CLASSIC CASE OF BAD JUDGEMENT. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT I SHOULD HAVE SHUT DOWN THE FLT AFTER THE FIRST LNDG WHEN I HAD LUNCH. IF I HAD PARKED THE AIRPLANE; GONE TO A MOTEL AND CONTINUED TO HOME BASE THE NEXT DAY; I WOULD HAVE HAD CLR SKIES AND MANY MILES VISIBILITY. INSTEAD; OVERCONFIDENCE; PROBABLY DUE IN PART TO OPTIMISM FED BY RPTED WX THAT WAS BETTER THAN I CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE; LED ME INTO A SIT THAT WAS UNSAFE; IN VIOLATION OF FARS AND CONTRARY TO MY PERSONAL RULES OF FLT MGMNT. MY BEST ADVICE; WHICH SHOULD BE BASIC; COMMON SENSE: DONT PUSH IT WHEN IT COMES TO MARGINAL WX.

Data retrieved from NASA's ASRS site as of January 2009 and automatically converted to unabbreviated mixed upper/lowercase text. This report is for informational purposes with no guarantee of accuracy. See NASA's ASRS site for official report.