Narrative:

The problem was an unforecasted ceiling at my destination (heber springs, ar: hbz) and over 100 mi in all directions hbz. Before takeoff from atlanta-pdk, the WX briefer (at 1-800- wxbrief) told me current conditions at lit ft (50 mi from hbz) were 1000 scattered, measured 15000 overcast, visibility 7 mi. That was at approximately XA20Z. Lit was given as 16-18Z, 1500 scattered, visibility 4-6 mi. After 18Z, 3000 scattered. None of this was correct, including the current conditions. It wasn't even close. They had a 1600-1900 ft ceiling over most of arkansas that didn't clear until 26 hours later. Wbound from atlanta, I was soon flying over a solid undercast (tops at 4100 ft) as predicted. Tupelo was 2000 overcast, for example. As I approached and passed memphis, I expected to see holes opening up in the clouds. Of course they never materialized. I can understand how a forecast can be wrong, but not current conditions. This would not normally be a huge problem, especially for a cfii. I would simply air-file IFR and shoot the NDB-5 approach at hbz, which is what I did (file). The problem arose when approximately over the gqe VOR (100 mi east of hbz) I found that my alternator had failed. I immediately shed the load on the battery by turning off all equipment except the transponder (I was under flight following) and one communication radio. I reported the problem to center and said I would like to get down now (while the battery was working) rather than later. All the while I am under the impression that the WX is better to the west. After all it was partly cloudy in little rock and forecast to improve, right? He cleared me down to 3100 ft, and we agreed I would shoot the hbz NDB-5. I added I would do so if the battery held up (obviously). During the descent, the controller said he lost radar contact. Mins later I heard my last transmission from him. The battery was dying. The left fuel gauge went from 9 down to 5 in a few mins. No fuel was being burned from that tank. The battery couldn't even power the fuel gauge. I began timing the fuel burn more closely. I reassessed the situation: a good engine, 1 1/2 hour of fuel remaining, and a total electrical failure. I knew I was over the flat rice fields of eastern arkansas with no tall buildings and few towers. Before the radio failed, a pilot on a lit-jbr route reported no VMC nearby. I exercised my emergency authority/authorized and vacated 3100 ft to get below the ceiling. I broke out at 1600 ft. I found united states highway 67 and followed it south to searcy and landed safely at M07 under an 1100 ft ceiling. Inspection revealed a broken alternator belt.

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Original NASA ASRS Text

Title: SMA ENCOUNTERS FOUL WX AND ELECTRICAL FAILURE WHILE IFR.

Narrative: THE PROB WAS AN UNFORECASTED CEILING AT MY DEST (HEBER SPRINGS, AR: HBZ) AND OVER 100 MI IN ALL DIRECTIONS HBZ. BEFORE TKOF FROM ATLANTA-PDK, THE WX BRIEFER (AT 1-800- WXBRIEF) TOLD ME CURRENT CONDITIONS AT LIT FT (50 MI FROM HBZ) WERE 1000 SCATTERED, MEASURED 15000 OVCST, VISIBILITY 7 MI. THAT WAS AT APPROX XA20Z. LIT WAS GIVEN AS 16-18Z, 1500 SCATTERED, VISIBILITY 4-6 MI. AFTER 18Z, 3000 SCATTERED. NONE OF THIS WAS CORRECT, INCLUDING THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. IT WASN'T EVEN CLOSE. THEY HAD A 1600-1900 FT CEILING OVER MOST OF ARKANSAS THAT DIDN'T CLR UNTIL 26 HRS LATER. WBOUND FROM ATLANTA, I WAS SOON FLYING OVER A SOLID UNDERCAST (TOPS AT 4100 FT) AS PREDICTED. TUPELO WAS 2000 OVCST, FOR EXAMPLE. AS I APCHED AND PASSED MEMPHIS, I EXPECTED TO SEE HOLES OPENING UP IN THE CLOUDS. OF COURSE THEY NEVER MATERIALIZED. I CAN UNDERSTAND HOW A FORECAST CAN BE WRONG, BUT NOT CURRENT CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE A HUGE PROB, ESPECIALLY FOR A CFII. I WOULD SIMPLY AIR-FILE IFR AND SHOOT THE NDB-5 APCH AT HBZ, WHICH IS WHAT I DID (FILE). THE PROB AROSE WHEN APPROX OVER THE GQE VOR (100 MI E OF HBZ) I FOUND THAT MY ALTERNATOR HAD FAILED. I IMMEDIATELY SHED THE LOAD ON THE BATTERY BY TURNING OFF ALL EQUIP EXCEPT THE XPONDER (I WAS UNDER FLT FOLLOWING) AND ONE COM RADIO. I RPTED THE PROB TO CTR AND SAID I WOULD LIKE TO GET DOWN NOW (WHILE THE BATTERY WAS WORKING) RATHER THAN LATER. ALL THE WHILE I AM UNDER THE IMPRESSION THAT THE WX IS BETTER TO THE W. AFTER ALL IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY IN LITTLE ROCK AND FORECAST TO IMPROVE, RIGHT? HE CLRED ME DOWN TO 3100 FT, AND WE AGREED I WOULD SHOOT THE HBZ NDB-5. I ADDED I WOULD DO SO IF THE BATTERY HELD UP (OBVIOUSLY). DURING THE DSCNT, THE CTLR SAID HE LOST RADAR CONTACT. MINS LATER I HEARD MY LAST XMISSION FROM HIM. THE BATTERY WAS DYING. THE L FUEL GAUGE WENT FROM 9 DOWN TO 5 IN A FEW MINS. NO FUEL WAS BEING BURNED FROM THAT TANK. THE BATTERY COULDN'T EVEN PWR THE FUEL GAUGE. I BEGAN TIMING THE FUEL BURN MORE CLOSELY. I REASSESSED THE SIT: A GOOD ENG, 1 1/2 HR OF FUEL REMAINING, AND A TOTAL ELECTRICAL FAILURE. I KNEW I WAS OVER THE FLAT RICE FIELDS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS WITH NO TALL BUILDINGS AND FEW TWRS. BEFORE THE RADIO FAILED, A PLT ON A LIT-JBR RTE RPTED NO VMC NEARBY. I EXERCISED MY EMER AUTH AND VACATED 3100 FT TO GET BELOW THE CEILING. I BROKE OUT AT 1600 FT. I FOUND UNITED STATES HWY 67 AND FOLLOWED IT S TO SEARCY AND LANDED SAFELY AT M07 UNDER AN 1100 FT CEILING. INSPECTION REVEALED A BROKEN ALTERNATOR BELT.

Data retrieved from NASA's ASRS site as of July 2007 and automatically converted to unabbreviated mixed upper/lowercase text. This report is for informational purposes with no guarantee of accuracy. See NASA's ASRS site for official report.