Narrative:

During planning for potential weather impact I; supervisor traffic management unit (stmc); agreed to take additional traffic based on the attached traffic flow management convective forecast product (tcf) panels. The panels indicated a significant diminishment of convective activity in ZDC with no activity in ZNY by xc:00. The attached snapshot is from xb:45 showing substantial convective activity in ZNY. Performance data analysis reporting system (pdars) data showed that ZOB held 46 aircraft for lga and ewr 34 aircraft for the day. The vast majority of those held during the xa:00-xd:00 timeframe. Holding was taking place in three different areas in ZOB and was even passed back to ZAU and ZID. An unofficial count at one point had ZOB holding over 30 aircraft for ewr and lga. I cannot verify this because we do not have the ability to replay traffic situational display due to local storage limitations not saving the information; but I believe command center does.after replaying the weather and the tcf forecast with the head of our local weather unit it was described to me that the forecast was accurate based on the parameters of the tcf. If more than 50% of the convective coverage is below 24;000 feet; it will not be depicted on tcf. The first problem is that the tcf product is the primary weather tool for the national planning telcons. When I first became an stmc; I was told that the ccfp (the similar product used before tcf) was the only tool we could use for the national planning telcons. I am not sure if this is still the case; but there was no indication on the product that there would be any substantial weather in ZNY at the time. The second problem is that all traffic departing or arriving major terminals say within 50 miles are all below 24;000 feet. In the case of dtw; within 40 miles all arrivals and departures will be below 17;000 feet. There needs to be some consideration of below 24;000 feet for the core 30 airports. Decisions were based on the tcf. I would have taken additional precautions.

Google
 

Original NASA ASRS Text

Title: ZOB ARTCC Traffic Management Supervisor reported they did not effectively manage traffic flows during significant weather periods due to limitations of weather forecasting equipment.

Narrative: During planning for potential weather impact I; Supervisor Traffic Management Unit (STMC); agreed to take additional traffic based on the attached Traffic Flow Management Convective Forecast Product (TCF) panels. The panels indicated a significant diminishment of convective activity in ZDC with no activity in ZNY by XC:00. The attached snapshot is from XB:45 showing substantial convective activity in ZNY. Performance Data Analysis Reporting System (PDARS) data showed that ZOB held 46 aircraft for LGA and EWR 34 aircraft for the day. The vast majority of those held during the XA:00-XD:00 timeframe. Holding was taking place in three different areas in ZOB and was even passed back to ZAU and ZID. An unofficial count at one point had ZOB holding over 30 aircraft for EWR and LGA. I cannot verify this because we do not have the ability to replay traffic situational display due to local storage limitations not saving the information; but I believe Command Center does.After replaying the weather and the TCF forecast with the head of our local weather unit it was described to me that the forecast was accurate based on the parameters of the TCF. If more than 50% of the convective coverage is below 24;000 feet; it will not be depicted on TCF. The first problem is that the TCF product is the primary weather tool for the national planning telcons. When I first became an STMC; I was told that the CCFP (the similar product used before TCF) was the only tool we could use for the national planning telcons. I am not sure if this is still the case; but there was no indication on the product that there would be any substantial weather in ZNY at the time. The second problem is that all traffic departing or arriving major terminals say within 50 miles are all below 24;000 feet. In the case of DTW; within 40 miles all arrivals and departures will be below 17;000 feet. There needs to be some consideration of below 24;000 feet for the Core 30 airports. Decisions were based on the TCF. I would have taken additional precautions.

Data retrieved from NASA's ASRS site and automatically converted to unabbreviated mixed upper/lowercase text. This report is for informational purposes with no guarantee of accuracy. See NASA's ASRS site for official report.